Testing a Business Idea
Design small evidence-gathering experiments before a larger commitment. No test can guarantee business success.
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01 · State the assumptionOpen lesson

An idea often depends on several assumptions about demand, willingness to pay, delivery and costs. Identify the most important uncertain assumption first. Make it specific enough to test with a defined group and behavior. Avoid a hypothesis that merely asks whether people like the idea, since agreement can be easier than real commitment.
Local parents will book a defined tutoring session at a stated price is more testable than everyone needs this.
Try it yourself
Write one demand hypothesis with a target customer.
02 · Choose a responsible methodOpen lessonLocked — complete previous lessons

Use interviews, prototype feedback or a limited pilot depending on the question. Explain what is real and what is hypothetical, obtain relevant permissions and handle data appropriately. Do not collect payment for an offer you cannot responsibly deliver. The method should test the assumption rather than reward the answer you want.
An interview asks how someone currently solves the problem before presenting a proposed solution.
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Choose a method and explain its limits.
03 · Metrics and interpretationOpen lessonLocked — complete previous lessons

Define a useful success criterion before viewing results. Track the denominator as well as the number of positive responses. A small or biased sample has limits. Distinguish interest, sign-up and actual purchase because they represent different levels of commitment. Record negative feedback and alternative explanations instead of deleting inconvenient results.
Six sign-ups out of 30 invitations is 20%, not proof that the entire market will buy.
Try it yourself
Calculate a fictional response rate and note a sample limitation.
04 · Decide and reviseOpen lessonLocked — complete previous lessons

Compare results with the original criterion and decide whether to continue, revise or stop. A weak result can suggest a change in customer, offer, price or method. Consider costs and operational feasibility alongside demand. Do not keep escalating investment only because you already worked hard on the idea.
A pilot finds demand for a narrower service, so the next test changes the scope.
Try it yourself
Complete your test plan and possible next decisions.